Small business optimism rises in anticipation of Trump 2.0

The anticipation of Donald Trump’s return to the White House sparked a surge in optimism on Main Street, according to multiple post-election polls.

The latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped 8 points to 101.7 in November as election results signaled a significant shift in economic policy from the Biden-Harris administration, breaking a 34-month streak of record uncertainty with the highest reading since June 2021.

Former President Donald Trump dances at his campaign rally at Crotona Park in the South Bronx on Thursday, May 23, 2024 in New York City. Main Street optimism is on the rise according to post-election surveys of small business owners. (James Devaney/GC Images/Getty Images)

This is the first time the reading has risen above the 50-year average over the past 2.5 years. Of the 10 components of the Optimism Index, nine increased, none decreased and one remained unchanged last month from October.

“In short, economic policy matters, and there’s no doubt that the election results spurred a lot of optimism, that increase in optimism, that we saw in our monthly economic survey,” NFIB President Brad Close told Bloomberg: The Close. ” this week.

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“Small business owners are looking forward to an administration coming in that’s going to address the concerns that little kids — half the economy in America — really care about, and that’s tax policy, which is cutting regulations and the recovery of the economy”, he concluded. added.

In the days after election night, gigging platform Fiverr conducted its own survey of business owners and found that almost 90% were optimistic about the future, especially those within sectors at the center of the election cycle, such as education (92%), finance. (89%), and retail (89%).

Eighty-five percent of respondents told Fiverr they believe Trump will improve the economic situation for small businesses, with higher rates of optimism among larger organizations at 89% among businesses with over 100 employees.

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According to the survey, both male (85%) and female (83%) business owners remain hopeful about the new administration and look forward to business growth – with nearly 92% of women-led businesses saying they expect revenue growth in the new year. .

NFIB Close said much of the optimism can be attributed to the hope that Trump’s signature tax cuts from his first term will be extended into his second, given that Republicans now control not only the White House, but both houses of Congress.

Republicans took control of the White House and both houses of Congress in recent months’ elections, fueling optimism that the GOP will be able to extend Trump’s tax cuts. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images/Getty Images)

“If you look at one of the biggest issues that small business owners are concerned about, the small business deduction, their ability to deduct 20% of their small business income from their business taxes, that it’s huge,” Close told Bloomberg.

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“This was created in 2017, right, so the economy took off after the tax bill passed,” he said. “That policy expires in a year. Small business owners know that, and they’re very optimistic that the next administration — which has said it wants to extend and make that provision permanent — is ready to get on with it.”

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